Life of a Poker Pro: Variance Boulevard

“Success is going from failure to failure without a loss of enthusiasm” – Winston Churchill

Over the course of the past couple of years during the boom period, the online poker community has seemingly concocted its own language whilst talking about the game. New phrases seem to appear on a daily basis. I usually can’t play a tournament nowadays without seeing the phrase “LOLdonkaments!” typed in the chat box, for example. I hate them all to be honest, but they are devised for a reason which is that in some backward way, they all have a true meaning. “Donkaments” for example, is the phrase people use to describe tournaments due to the fact so much “donking” of players happens compared to other variations of the game. Simple enough, if a little annoying.

One of the words I came across a while back that I absolutely, POSITIVELY despised was the phrase variance. As time went by, I realised that knowing & understanding what it meant and how it applied to the game of poker is one of the fundamentals of becoming a long-term game winner.

Depending on who you speak to, the meaning of variance can change slightly. In a nutshell, it’s what is used to describe the swings (highs & lows) of poker, and how they even out over the long term e.g. AA vs. an underpair is a 4/1 favourite (80%ish) to win the hand. Therefore, if all the chips go into the pot preflop, you will lose 20% of the time. If you’re having “good variance”, you may win with AA vs. an underpair 10, 15 or even 20 times straight without losing. With “bad variance”, you could lose 5 times in a row. But one thing is for sure, long term AA will win... guess what... around 80% of the time.

We’ve all seen the crying posts on forums over the Internet that go something along the lines of “site X is rigged, I just withdrew a load of money and surprise, I start losing!” Or: “My pocket kings got cracked by ace-rag for the 7th time in a row!”, but what’s important to understand is:

a) If you keep getting your money in ahead, you will eventually win your fair share.

b) The person in question is usually over exaggerating because they feel sorry for themselves.

c) No hand in poker is unbreakable; we just play the odds long term.

d) That particular person is probably coming off a “heater” i.e. a very good run, and is suffering from the aforementioned bad variance.

It’s what makes the game so great - anyone can beat anyone at any given point in time. Hey, 1.01 sports betting shots get cracked all the time, and 990/1 outdraws occur every so often in poker (QQQQ vs KK after flop, turn and river both K). But they’ll happen roughly 1 in every 100 & 1 in every 990 times respectively.

Understanding the odds and percentages is vital to your game, everyone knows that. 70/30s, 60/40s, amounts of outs that you are drawing to etc, but more important is to step back and understand how your game is going right now and to look to the future and anticipate what is likely to be in store for you. If you currently can’t miss a hand regardless of the two cards you play, are getting dealt premium hands in key situations and never losing a race; first of all ride it for as long as you can but also remember that it won’t last forever.

The odds dictate that at some point, EVERYBODY will lose. It’s a harsh reality and a hard one to accept but it’s the stone cold truth. A professional’s job is to foresee the worst case scenario and having a contingency plan in place for any “abnormalities”. That’s why bankroll management is so important. Just because you won X amount over the course of the last week/month you are not invincible. In fact, you need to be aware, at least subconsciously, that you are even more vulnerable than normal if you have been killing a certain game.

Of course, exactly the opposite is applicable when on a downward spiral. If poker was slow and consistent it would be a whole lot easier to make a living at, rather than having to deal with extreme swings/variance, but life isn’t that easy. I’ve had stretches of months “running dry”, yet always bounced back with incredible winning runs. It’s no coincidence; just the percentages playing out over the course of time. As bad as things get they will eventually become equally as good, you just have to ride through it. I tend to liken a bad run to that period in the season where a football team will lose to every game in site, suffer a multitude of injuries, suspensions and have a dodgy referee each match. The only way is up. I’m a Leeds Utd. Fan so trust me, I know :D

Poker is a game of thrill & excitement and it’s far too easy to live for the moment. However, if you consider, or would like to call it your profession, there are certain emotional aspects you need to put on the backburner. Separating the bulk of your emotions from what happens on the table is key to your long term survival as well as gaining an advantage on your highly strung opponents (they suffer bad variance like everyone else). We still like a bit of excitement though, so it’s acceptable to crack a smile if you’re smashing your game to bits. Equally, don’t take it too personally if things aren’t going your way. If you’re suffering bad beats every game it’s a compliment, because you’re getting your opponents to call you when behind, it’s just that old chestnut variance kicking in. It will be your best friend and your worst enemy so get used to it.

It’s always important to take a step back from what’s going in on the present and to remember the past and possible future. Having a broad spectrum and perspective of what’s going on in your poker endeavours will make you a better rounded player and avoid catching you off guard when you least expect it. This is a game of peaks & troughs; however high the highs are, the lows can be just as low. Knowing and being able to deal with this will eventually send you towards the higher echelons of the game. Why? Because very few can differentiate bad variance from being “unlucky”.

Regards,
JPK
jonathanfarrer@aol.com