JPK - Moving up the stakes

Over the course of the past few months, one of the main areas in all of my topics has circulated around trying to protect yourself, health and finances. A key factor in prolonging your life as a profitable poker professional is being able to consistently manage your ability to choose the right games to play in, which most of the time circles around the monetary aspect.

So, when is the right time to move up in stakes?

This question is open-ended and there is no right or wrong answer; There are many variables that you need to consider. Let’s take a look at the following examples of 3 poker professionals:

Player A is a Sit and Go (SNG) “grinder”. He plays $50 per game, and plays multiple tables at a time. He has shown a consistent profit of around 10% ROI (or, $5 profit a game), and plays 50 games a day, making $250. His bankroll is considerable and at his current stake there is very little risk of him going broke. He is 23 and lives at home, and has close to zero overheads per month.

Player B is also a “SNG” grinder, but he plays $100 a game at around 7.5% ROI, returning $7.50 a game, but plays around 30 games a day, roughly $225 profit on average. He is 41 and married with two children & has a sizeable mortgage.

Player C is a flamboyant cash player at $5/10 NL, $1000 buy-in and plays up to 4 games at a time, thus has a minimum $4000 at risk at any period. He is known to be a possible up and coming rising star and has a big reputation. Unfortunately, due to the higher quality of opponents he plays against, the swings can be very high, but the rewards when he is “running good” are immense & 5 figure profit days are not rare. He is 19 years old and has a medium-sized bankroll. He lives in his own apartment with all the trimmings and has no debts.

In all three of the above scenarios, you could make a strong argument that they should all continue to do what they are doing as it seems to be working just fine. However, in such a dog eat dog world we always have to look at every small variable to determine what is going to be best in the long term scheme of things. If you are in one of the above positions, get on your knees and pray to the Lord because you’ve been given a wonderful opportunity and you DON’T want to blow it.

Player A is a prime example of someone playing it safe when they don’t need to; They are clearly good enough to move up in stakes when consistently beating a $50 game (you will find the difference between $50 and $100 type games is very little), and with zero overheads and responsibilities it is definitely a worthwhile gamble, or rather “+EV” (expected value) to play higher stakes. Hard work pays off, but when we have hit a glass ceiling at a certain level the plan should be to always move forward and not get stuck in a rut.

Player B is interesting. This is a situation where great care must be taken. They are not showing a huge profit at $100, or working as hard as Player A yet they have an abundance more in terms of commitments. Before looking to move higher a better work ethic needs to be established & more breathing room financially. I would advise against increasing the stakes here, in fact, slightly lowering them could even be a viable option, since the margins we have to work with here are much smaller.

Player C has the bankroll, the talents, and assets behind them, so why not? If they have the ability to crush a $1000 cash game, then they should fair quite well at a $2000 game, you will find it’s often the same players. However, table selection becomes an important part when moving up to such levels, as opposed to $50 to $100. Is the $2000 game full of $5000 players who can’t find a table at their own stake, or $500-1000 players chasing losses/on tilt/taking a stab at the lottery? Either way, I would advise Player C to go for it.

A lot of it comes down to “feel”. If you would be too nervous moving up in stakes then it’s probably not a good idea, as you’re less likely to play at an optimum level. On the flip side, if grinding at your current level has become tedious, where even a “big” winning day doesn’t leave you feeling satisfied and you can afford to take a few hits, then moving up to a higher level is the way to go. But you must be sure to plan it correctly with bankroll and time allotment, then you won’t get nervous if things don’t go too well to begin with.

Remember, nothing is set in stone and you can move up & down in stakes as you wish. Don’t fall into the trap of raising the bar and getting stuck there when you don’t want to be, whilst at the same time don’t get bogged down playing games where you don’t feel at least some thrill of taking down the win.

Poker is survival of the fittest and sometimes you must eat a little humble pie and drop back down. By the same token we must always look to progress in whatever we do in life. This game is no different than working your way up a company: you start at a low level and climb the rungs on the ladder. If it gets too high for your liking at any point take a step backwards and regain your composure before trying to move up again.

You should always be reaching for the very top of the ladder, but don’t make the mistake of trying to do it in one giant leap, because most of the time you will end up falling flat on your face. However, if you look to progress slowly and competently you’ll find yourself way up high, then all of a sudden look down and wonder what all the fuss about climbing was about in the first place.

Regards
Jonathan “JPK” Farrer
jonathanfarrer@aol.com