Ariston and on - folding equity and value betting

Ok guys, I have already given you an article on bluffing and several on odds and basic strategy so now it’s time to get some of the juicy stuff. How do players like dpommo and Dubai M get those big stacks tournament after tournament?

In simple terms they can do it because they know exactly what they are doing with their bets. They don’t sit around waiting for aces and kings, they make things happen or force the action. If you want to put a label on it then they are the table captains and when they are on a table they own it. If you let them, then you are going to have a slow painful exit as they aren't going to let you breathe. I am going to give you some of the basic tools that you need to play tournament poker. These mainly relate to three types of bets as well as an important issue that was raised recently on the Betfair Poker forum - folding equity.

The first thing to consider is the type of bet you use. Do you know why you have bet a certain amount on the river. Lets say that you have a hand you are certain is good enough, even though Mr Aggressive has bet every street (I am not talking about having the nuts here and trapping him, just a hand that you’re sure is the best hand), you may want to put a value bet in on the river. This should be an amount your foe cannot pass for and has to look you up. This gets you a few extra chips in case he was going to check back his top pair 3 kicker after you have checked the river. When making a value bet, Mr Aggressive may even re-raise you and try to take it off you. If you have decided that you are going to value bet then you should have already made up your mind that you’re going to call any re-raise that may come. If you are wrong then so be it, but make your mind up and stick to it (you are only value betting if you know you are winning remember).

What about if you think you have the best hand but are not certain? This would be the time for a stop bet. The stop bet is the same size bet as a value bet but you may be intending to pass to a re-raise. If the re-raise comes then it’s time to make your decision. The reason that the stop bet is the same size as the value bet should at least confuse your opponent a little as he will not be certain whether you want him to call or not. Usually, a good player will fold if he thinks you want him to call. If you have in your notes on a player that you have run value bets on him successfully in the past, then he should be wary of re-raising a stop bet with anything but a very strong hand. The stop bet is obviously only used when first to act, whereas a value bet can be used in last position. If you value bet when last to speak, remember your decision has already been made that you are not folding to a check-raise on the river.

What about if you are last to act and your opponent has checked the river to you after betting the flop and turn? The river has given you top 2 pair but also put a flush on the board. Sure you could put a value bet in but what if he instantly re-raises you? This is one of the most common mistakes that I see on the internet every day and is known as betting to lose. You cannot value bet if the board changes unless you have the change yourself or are representing the change i.e. you are bluffing. If the pot is already nice enough and you have a hand that’s good but not the nuts then why bet the river in last position? Your opponent can only call your bet if he/she has you beat. You are in effect betting to lose. You have no chance of winning any other chips as he can’t call without having you over a barrel. Just check it back and take the pot (providing he hasn’t made his flush). If someone checks the river to me and I bet, it is either a stone cold bluff or a value bet (i.e. I will be calling any re-raise). There is no point betting just for the sake of it. You should think “why I am I doing this?” before you actually do it.

Above are three basic tools to help you with tournament play. Now I’m going to try to simplify folding equity which is quite a difficult concept to grasp at first but once you get used to it you will find it very easy to get big stacks without getting big hands. The basic term folding equity relates to the % chance of you making your opponent fold by betting at him. If your opponent has raised 90% of his stack pre-flop and you bet the flop then the folding equity is zero....he isn’t passing so you better have a hand. If however he has only bet 20% of his stack and a scary board has come into play then you can put a % by feel. A lot comes down to knowing the style of your opponents play and also the texture of the board. The best way to do this is to give a hand example. This is a truly made up hand and any similarities to actual hands played is purely coincidental.

You are in the big blind and Mr Table Captain (decent size stack) has raised your blind for the 176th time in the tournament from the cut-off. You look down to find A6 and decide you are most likely to be in front. How do you play this hand from here? You haven’t got enough chips to knock him out so it’s not his tournament life at stake here. The all-in is an option but he may have a bigger ace than you (don’t forget that even the rajpot can find a hand).

You decide to take a flop. The flop comes down a very juicy looking 3 4 5 rainbow. What now? You have a nice stack of chips but there are so many chips in the pot that are just begging to be taken. The way I would play this hand is to simply move all-in. I have enough chips to make him fold hands like bigger aces etc (even though he may read me for a stop ‘n’ go, he will be hard pushed to call you with an AJ or similar). So I move in and he calls showing me QQ and I hit the ace to double up. The other player has no problem with my move as he would’ve done exactly the same if he had been sat in the BB (he may have even check raised all-in to get a few extra chips). The reason that we get our chips in here, even though we probably have the worst hand is because of:

a) The odds of winning the hand even if we are called - we have 8 outs to the straight and either 3 aces or 3 sixes to hit as well (depending on whether he calls you with big ace or over pair). That is 11 outs twice over which equates to a 44% chance of winning anyway.


b) We aren’t folding this hand irrespective of what our opponent has anyway - we called to see the flop so what are we looking for on the flop? 666/AAA?.


c) Take a look at the folding equity - does Mr mover and shaker need a hand to be raising on the button? He would raise with lots of different holdings and has done so in the past a million times (and will do again many millions of times). When the flop comes down, is he likely to have a hand good enough to call your all-in? I would say the folding equity on this hand is huge as most hands he would raise with would be high connectors, big aces, big pairs or even total junk. If he has the hand then you have many outs anyway so just take your chances.

Any forumites reading this should recognise the hand and remember the debate about the outcome. I tried on the original post to explain folding equity and I have tried again here but I am still not sure I have made it clear enough. In very basic terms, if you play the hand 100 times and go all-in 100 times, how many times do you think your opponent will fold and how many times do you think he will call? If you think you will get called maybe 30 times out of a 100, then the folding equity is 70% (that is the figure I would put on the above hand with the above player. If you add this 70% folding equity to the odds on you winning the hand, the 30% of the time you get called then the correct play is to get all your chips in the middle (70% of the time you win the pot uncontested and of the 30% you get called you win 44% of the time making you around an 83% favourite if you move in). Ok fair enough, you may have a few early baths but, then again, to live you must be willing to die in tournament poker. Next time you make this move and get called by KK which you crack on the turn just tell your opponent ariston told you to do it and ignore the expletives aimed at you!!!

See you on the tables

ariston